The US Presidential Election is now just over a week away, and investors have been closely tracking the polls for an indication of what to potentially expect from Washington for the next four years. The charts below highlight that Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, is still significantly favored over Donald Trump, though Trump’s odds have been increasing modestly since late September. Also important is the control of the Senate and House of Representatives. At this stage, Democrats are heavily expected retain control of the House, but control of the Senate is still a coin flip. If Democrats are able to take the White House and both houses of congress on election day, the result could be a larger and more expedited fiscal stimulus bill than one that would be passed (or not) under a divided government structure.
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