Key Events: Something for everyone
The data probably validated your opinion this week:
Retail sales, housing starts, and jobless claims came in better than expected and consumer sentiment rose to the highest level since the summer of 2021.
The Empire state manufacturing survey registered the largest decline since the pandemic.
Trump won the first 2024 GOP primary in Iowa.
Market Review: Record highs for the S&P 500
This good data and consumer optimism carried the S&P 500 to its first new high since January 3, 2022.
Gains did not spread to other stock categories, though, as small and international stocks declined.
Bonds also lost money on reduced expectations for the magnitude of 2024 Fed rate cuts.
Outlook: Coping with delinquency
Let’s temper the S&P 500 enthusiasm a bit. We have discussed reduced bank lending as a potential drag on 2024 growth; commercial real estate delinquency levels are beginning to foreshadow slowing lending activity as bank balance sheets weaken. The chart below shows that bank holdings of delinquent commercial real estate loans has grown to levels approaching the financial crisis.
While we celebrate the positive economic data, portfolios remain balanced, structured to withstand the negative as well as benefit from the positive.
Real Estate Delinquency 
Navigator Outlook: January 2023
 Source: Data: FDIC; Chart: Axios Visuals